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The trick: Announced Not Shipped

Open-source AI is a month behind the best, says the post going round.

The model that closes the gap has no downloadable weights yet, and Artificial Analysis lists it as proprietary.

Issue 5525 October 202617 receipts3 min
A spectator finds the public gate padlocked with a sealed envelope hanging from it.
AI illustration

Kimi K3.1 Pro puts open-source AI a month behind the best.

Before you read on. Your call?

Artificial Analysis gives it 55 on its Intelligence Index but labels it 'Proprietary model'. ModelCompare derived the 31 days itself and counts the model as open because Kimi says weights come by Nov 4. ModelCompare puts the gap to Claude Opus 5.5 at 2.5 points, not 3.

55Kimi K3.1 Pro's Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score
2.5Points short of Claude Opus 5.5
31 daysModelCompare's own 'behind' figure
150MOutput tokens Kimi K3.1 Pro used on the index

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The trick has a name

We call it Announced Not Shipped: claimed, never released. You'll see it again. Learn to spot it →

Say this in tomorrow's meeting“The score is Artificial Analysis's. The 'month behind' is ModelCompare's sum, and it counts weights Kimi has promised but not yet released.”

Receipts

  1. Supports modelcompare.ai: In time, that puts open-source AI about a month behind: Claude Opus 5.5 first scored that high 31 days earlier.
  2. Supports modelcompare.ai: In time, that puts open-source AI about a month behind:
  3. Context modelcompare.ai: Only models Artificial Analysis marks as open weights count.
  4. Refutes modelcompare.ai: count it as open because Kimi says it will publish the weights by
  5. Refutes modelcompare.ai: until then it runs on Kimi’s own API.
  6. Context modelcompare.ai: Our snapshot is from 18 October
  7. Refutes artificialanalysis.ai: Kimi • Proprietary model • Released October 2026
  8. Supports artificialanalysis.ai: Kimi K3.1 Pro scores 55 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index
  9. Context artificialanalysis.ai: it generated 150M tokens, which is very verbose in comparison to the median of 87M
  10. Context artificialanalysis.ai: it costs $2.11 per task to evaluate Kimi K3.1 Pro on the Intelligence Index
  11. Context artificialanalysis.ai: Intelligence Index is a primarily text-based, English-language evaluation suite
  12. Context artificialanalysis.ai: Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3.2 incorporates 10 evaluations
  13. Supports kimi.com: our most capable 3T-class open-weight model to date
  14. Refutes kimi.com: The full model weights will be released by Nov 4.
  15. Supports modelcompare.ai: scores 55.1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, a blend of hard tests in reasoning, knowledge, coding and agent work.
  16. Supports modelcompare.ai: That is 2.5 points short of Claude Opus 5.5
  17. Supports modelcompare.ai: When Xiaomi released MiMo-V2.6-Pro in September , the gap was 104 days

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