Learn · a trick with a name
Moved Goalpost
the threshold itself was changed, quietly.
Hitting a target sounds like success until you notice the target moved to meet the result.
How to spot it
- A goal restated after the deadline
- New definitions of words like 'launch', 'available' or 'autonomous'
- Last year's promise is missing from this year's announcement
The one question to ask“What was the original target, in the original words?”
At work
Keep vendor promises in writing with dates. At renewal, compare what was promised to what shipped.
Caught in the wild
Every time we've caught it so far. Try calling each one before you open it.
- TRUE, BUTAI 'needs $6 trillion a year' to justify the data-centre boom. The number is a $1.5 trillion spending forecast divided by an assumed ratio of about a quarter.
- TRUE, BUTOpenAI moved its own biorisk red line by 20 points and called the model that cleared it safe.
