Six independent studies converge on the same measured productivity gain: about 10 percent. In a randomized trial, experienced developers using frontier AI tools took 19 percent longer than those working without them. They thought they were 20 percent faster.
“AI coding tools deliver massive productivity gains, justifying industry-wide adoption and billions in AI investment.”
AI tool vendors and companies citing AI productivity to justify spend, 18 August 2026
Recorded 18 August 2026. Our ruling means: credible experts genuinely disagree.
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“AI is dramatically accelerating AI research at Anthropic right now, roughly doubling the pace of capabilities progress.”
TRUE, BUTLab Not FieldAjeya Cotra on Planned Obsolescence, reading METR's assessment and Anthropic's S-1 statement that it may imminently meet its own threshold
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