The trick: Moved Ruler

Consumer AI spending 'tripled to $40 billion' while users barely grew.

Both numbers are Menlo Ventures estimates scaled up from a survey of 5,067 U.S. adults.

Issue 3030 September 202611 receipts3 min

Menlo Ventures' 2026 consumer AI report says global consumer AI spend reached $40 billion, more than 3x last year's $12 billion, while global users grew just 11%, from 1.8 billion to 2.0 billion.

Before you read on. Your call?

Menlo's methodology says its market sizes are estimates anchored on survey data, from 5,067 U.S. adults surveyed with Morning Consult, with the global figure adjusted downwards for internet access. The only measured adoption change is U.S. adult use rising from 61% to 64%.

The twist

The report says 55% of AI users now pay for at least one AI product. Bank of America Institute, working from payments data, says only 3% of households pay for AI. The units differ, users against households, but the two methods give very different pictures of who is paying.

5,067U.S. adults surveyed by Menlo Ventures and Morning Consult

55%U.S. AI users in Menlo's survey who say they pay for at least one AI product

3%households that pay for AI

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The trick has a name

We call it Moved Ruler: two methods, two answers, one of them quoted. You'll see it again. Learn to spot it →

Say this in tomorrow's meeting“The $40 billion and 2 billion users are Menlo's estimates, scaled from a survey of 5,067 Americans. Its survey says 55% of AI users pay; Bank of America's payments data says 3% of households do.”

Receipts

Supports menlovc.com: Global consumer AI spend reached $40 billion this year, more than 3x the $12 billion we measured a year ago.
Supports menlovc.com: The number of AI users globally grew just 11% this year, from 1.8 billion to 2.0 billion people, while consumer spend more than tripled.
Supports menlovc.com: the real growth came from existing users going deeper and paying more
Supports mktg.ai: Global consumer AI spending tripled, from $12 billion to $40 billion, in the same period.
Context menlovc.com: Market size figures are Menlo Ventures estimates, anchored on survey data for AI usage and spend, and triangulated against credible third-party sources.
Context menlovc.com: findings are based on a survey of 5,067 U.S. adults conducted with Morning Consult in July 2026.
Context menlovc.com: While the survey's usage and spending figures are reflective of U.S. adults, the global estimate is adjusted downwards to account for differences in internet access
Context menlovc.com: The share of U.S. adults using AI rose just three points, from 61% to 64%
Supports menlovc.com: 55% of AI users now pay for at least one AI product
Context menlovc.com: today's $12 billion market indicates that only about 3% pay for premium services
Refutes institute.bankofamerica.com: Only 3% of households pay for AI today, but adoption and spending are rising as AI expands beyond higher-income, early adopters.

Open the Receipts Pack → What each source proves, every figure traced, and what would change our verdict.