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TRUE, BUTMoved Ruler

Both are survey-based estimates

Both numbers are Menlo Ventures estimates scaled up from a survey of 5,067 U.S. adults.

“Consumer AI spending tripled to $40 billion while the global user base only grew from 1.8 billion to 2 billion, per Menlo Ventures' 2026 State of Consumer AI report.”

Menlo Ventures, 2026: The State of Consumer AI

Recorded 30 September 2026. Our ruling means: literally true, materially misleading.

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Receipts pack

The evidence file for this verdict

11 receipts: 5 support the claim, 1 contradict it, 5 add context. 3 figures on the record, 3 traced to a quoted receipt.

The receipts

Each source, the line we quote from it, its date and which way it cuts. Free to read and to cite.

  1. 1Supports the claimmenlovc.com ↗

    Global consumer AI spend reached $40 billion this year, more than 3x the $12 billion we measured a year ago.

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  2. 2Supports the claimmenlovc.com ↗

    The number of AI users globally grew just 11% this year, from 1.8 billion to 2.0 billion people, while consumer spend more than tripled.

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  3. 3Supports the claimmenlovc.com ↗

    the real growth came from existing users going deeper and paying more

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  4. 4Supports the claimmktg.ai ↗

    Global consumer AI spending tripled, from $12 billion to $40 billion, in the same period.

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  5. 5Contextmenlovc.com ↗

    Market size figures are Menlo Ventures estimates, anchored on survey data for AI usage and spend, and triangulated against credible third-party sources.

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  6. 6Contextmenlovc.com ↗

    findings are based on a survey of 5,067 U.S. adults conducted with Morning Consult in July 2026.

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  7. 7Contextmenlovc.com ↗

    While the survey's usage and spending figures are reflective of U.S. adults, the global estimate is adjusted downwards to account for differences in internet access

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  8. 8Contextmenlovc.com ↗

    The share of U.S. adults using AI rose just three points, from 61% to 64%

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  9. 9Supports the claimmenlovc.com ↗

    55% of AI users now pay for at least one AI product

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  10. 10Contextmenlovc.com ↗

    today's $12 billion market indicates that only about 3% pay for premium services

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  11. 11Contradicts the claiminstitute.bankofamerica.com ↗

    Only 3% of households pay for AI today, but adoption and spending are rising as AI expands beyond higher-income, early adopters.

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Members' extras

What each receipt proves, and what would change our mind.

  • What each receipt above proves, in our words
  • The figures table, each number traced to the receipt that states it
  • The trick behind the claim, explained, with the guide to spotting it
  • What would change our verdict
  • Our call on the record, with its due date

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