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Expect to hire, not hired

The New York Fed post measured what owners expect to do, and its authors say whether they actually do is a subject for future research.

“Feds find small businesses that use AI are more likely to hire.”

Headline on coverage of a New York Fed Liberty Street Economics post (8 October 2026)

Recorded 2 November 2026. Our ruling means: literally true, materially misleading.

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Receipts pack

The evidence file for this verdict

13 receipts: 3 support the claim, 3 contradict it, 7 add context. 3 figures on the record, 3 traced to a quoted receipt.

The receipts

Each source, the line we quote from it, its date and which way it cuts. Free to read and to cite.

  1. 1Supports the claimlibertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org ↗

    We find that firms currently using AI are significantly more likely than non-users to expect increased employment and revenues over the next year

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  2. 2Contextlibertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org ↗

    those who currently use AI had a 33 percentage point net expectation of higher employment in the next twelve months, while non-users had only a 15 percentage point net expectation

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  3. 3Contradicts the claimlibertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org ↗

    Whether AI-adopting firms actually experience the stronger revenue and employment outcomes they anticipate is a subject for future research.

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  4. 4Contextlibertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org ↗

    the gap in expected employment growth between AI users and non-users remains positive (at 10 percentage points

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  5. 5Contextlibertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org ↗

    the net probability of expected employment growth remains higher for AI users than for non-users (by 13 percentage points

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  6. 6Contextlibertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org ↗

    In the SBCS survey, 77 percent of respondents reported no change in their firm’s current labor costs from the use of AI.

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  7. 7Supports the claimlibertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org ↗

    AI use is associated with more optimistic expectations about future employment and revenue growth, even after accounting for firm and owner characteristics.

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  8. 8Contextlibertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org ↗

    The survey was fielded between September and November of 2025. Total number of employer firms in the AI module: 5,248.

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  9. 9Contextlibertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org ↗

    Will Aarons is a research analyst in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.

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  10. 10Supports the claimvitallaw.com ↗

    Small businesses that use artificial intelligence are more likely than nonusers to expect employment and revenue growth during the next year

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  11. 11Contextstreamlinefeed.co.ke ↗

    New York Fed researchers Will Aarons and Asani Sarkar analyzed the Federal Reserve Banks’ 2025 Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS).

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  12. 12Contradicts the claimstreamlinefeed.co.ke ↗

    These controls improve the comparison but do not establish causation: AI adopters may differ in ways the survey did not capture.

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  13. 13Contradicts the claimstreamlinefeed.co.ke ↗

    The findings show optimism and perceived productivity gains, not settled net job creation.

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Members' extras

What each receipt proves, and what would change our mind.

  • What each receipt above proves, in our words
  • The figures table, each number traced to the receipt that states it
  • The trick behind the claim, explained, with the guide to spotting it
  • What would change our verdict
  • Our call on the record, with its due date

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