Start free trial

CONTESTED

Of anything.

Ever again.

“For all intents and purposes, we believe DeepMind is no longer a frontier lab... their odds of reaching SOTA again have dropped to zero.”

SemiAnalysis, research firm (Max Kan, Joey Brookhart, Doug O'Laughlin, Dylan Patel), 7 August 2026

Recorded 11 August 2026. Our ruling means: credible experts genuinely disagree.

Read the story →

Receipts pack

The evidence file for this verdict

5 receipts: 2 support the claim, 1 contradict it, 2 add context. 3 figures on the record, 2 traced to a quoted receipt.

The receipts

Each source, the line we quote from it, its date and which way it cuts. Free to read and to cite.

  1. 1Supports the claimnewsletter.semianalysis.com ↗

    we believe DeepMind is no longer a frontier lab

    Look up an archived copy ↗

  2. 2Contextthe-decoder.com ↗

    Gemini 3.1 Pro is still only available in preview mode

    Look up an archived copy ↗

  3. 3Supports the claimfortune.com ↗

    There's a lot of just hopping over to pre-IPO labs

    Look up an archived copy ↗

  4. 4Contextthe-decoder.com ↗

    Gemini's annualized revenue stood at $12 billion

    Look up an archived copy ↗

  5. 5Contradicts the claimasimovaddendum.substack.com ↗

    The evidence does not necessarily show that Google has abandoned technological ambition.

    Look up an archived copy ↗

Members' extras

What each receipt proves, and what would change our mind.

  • What each receipt above proves, in our words
  • The figures table, each number traced to the receipt that states it
  • What would change our verdict
  • Our call on the record, with its due date

The verdict, the opening and every receipt above stay free. Membership adds our analysis to the evidence file for every checked story.

See Membership →Already a member? Sign in →

First membership: 30 days free, then A$89 a year. One introductory trial per customer. Card required; renews annually until cancelled. Cancel before the trial ends to avoid the first charge.