The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable · chapter 2 · id the-black-swan-c2-02-consider-a-turkey-that-is-fed-
“Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.”
TRUE, BUTconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending
Receipts
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy: The Problem of Inductionsource alive
Hume argued that inductive reasoning cannot be rationally justified: past regularities provide no logical guarantee of future continuation.
Bertrand Russell, The Problems of Philosophy (1912)source alive
Russell used the chicken analogy: 'the man who has fed the chicken every day throughout its life at last wrings its neck instead.' The turkey version is Taleb's Americanization of Russell's original.
This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us. Corrections are loud here.