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Papers: the witness stand

Every verdict we publish rests on evidence, and the strongest evidence is the primary literature. 376 papers are currently on the stand, giving 508 testimonies across our audits. Below are the two dozen most-called witnesses; the full stand follows. Weekly full paper autopsies begin per the roadmap: one paper, rebuilt as a visual explanation with every claim receipted.

doi:10.1037/0022-3514.92.6.1087testified in 19 verdicts

NEEDS CONTEXT · Grit predicted completion of the rigorous summer training program at West Point better than self-control, SAT … (grit)
HOLDS · Self-control predicted GPA better than grit, but grit predicted retention in the military sample better than s… (grit)
NEEDS CONTEXT · Self-control predicted GPA better than grit, but grit predicted retention in the military sample better than s… (grit)
and 16 more testimonies

doi:10.1137/070710111testified in 6 verdicts

NEEDS CONTEXT · Many empirical phenomena have been claimed to follow power-law distributions, but rigorous statistical testing… (the-black-swan)
HOLDS · Many empirical phenomena claimed to follow power laws are better fit by alternative distributions when rigorou… (the-black-swan)
HOLDS · Power-law distributions have heavy tails, meaning extreme events occur with much higher probability than Gauss… (the-black-swan)
and 3 more testimonies

doi:10.1037/0033-295X.114.4.843testified in 5 verdicts

NEEDS CONTEXT · Habits are context-dependent automatic responses, relatively independent of goals and motivational states once… (atomic-habits)
NEEDS CONTEXT · Academic habit research emphasizes context-dependent automaticity and environmental stability, which Clear's f… (atomic-habits)
HOLDS · Habitual responses are triggered by stable context cues and proceed with minimal conscious awareness, consiste… (atomic-habits)
and 2 more testimonies

doi:10.1037/bul0000103testified in 5 verdicts

HOLDS · Meta-analysis of 122 studies confirms hindsight bias is a robust phenomenon across cultures, age groups, and d… (the-black-swan)
HOLDS · Meta-analysis of 122 studies confirms hindsight bias is a robust phenomenon across cultures, age groups, and d… (the-black-swan)
HOLDS · Hindsight bias is robust across domains including political events, medical diagnoses, and legal judgments. Pe… (the-black-swan)
and 2 more testimonies

doi:10.1037/0003-066X.54.7.493testified in 4 verdicts

NEEDS CONTEXT · Specifying concrete behavioral plans increases follow-through. Consistent with reducing the action to a small,… (atomic-habits)
NEEDS CONTEXT · The general principle of reinforcing successive approximations toward a target behavior is established in beha… (atomic-habits)
HOLDS · Self-monitoring and specification of behavioral intentions are established components of behavior change inter… (atomic-habits)
and 1 more testimonies

doi:10.2307/1914185testified in 4 verdicts

NEEDS CONTEXT · The value function is steeper for losses than for gains, with a loss aversion coefficient of approximately 2.2… (influence)
HOLDS · The value function is steeper for losses than for gains, with a loss aversion coefficient of approximately 2.2… (poor-charlies-almanack)
HOLDS · Prospect Theory proposes that carriers of value are gains and losses relative to a reference point, not final … (thinking-fast-and-slow)
and 1 more testimonies

doi:10.1037/0022-3514.32.5.906testified in 4 verdicts

NEEDS CONTEXT · Cookies scarce due to social demand were rated as more desirable than cookies scarce due to accidental supply … (influence)
NEEDS CONTEXT · Cookies that became scarce due to social demand (high demand from others) were rated as more desirable than co… (influence)
NEEDS CONTEXT · Cookies from a jar reduced from ten to two were rated as more desirable than cookies from a jar that always co… (influence)
and 1 more testimonies

doi:10.2105/AJPH.82.8.1089testified in 4 verdicts

NEEDS CONTEXT · Roseto had a strikingly lower mortality rate from myocardial infarction compared with Bangor over the 1935-196… (outliers)
NEEDS CONTEXT · By 1971-1985, Roseto's heart disease mortality rates converged with Bangor's, as the community became more Ame… (outliers)
HOLDS · By 1971-1985, Roseto's heart disease mortality rates converged with Bangor's, as the community became more Ame… (outliers)
and 1 more testimonies

doi:10.1037/0022-3514.54.4.569testified in 4 verdicts

NEEDS CONTEXT · Subjects rated the quality of a decision as higher when the outcome was favorable, even when outcome informati… (thinking-in-bets)
NEEDS CONTEXT · Subjects rated the quality of a decision as higher when the outcome was favorable, even when outcome informati… (thinking-in-bets)
HOLDS · Subjects rated the quality of a decision as higher when the outcome was favorable, even when outcome informati… (thinking-in-bets)
and 1 more testimonies

doi:10.1080/00201740903087359testified in 3 verdicts

NEEDS CONTEXT · The wanting/liking distinction shows that motivational wanting and hedonic liking are dissociable neural syste… (atomic-habits)
HOLDS · Dopamine signaling shifts from reward receipt to reward anticipation as learning progresses. Basal ganglia chu… (atomic-habits)
HOLDS · Wanting (incentive salience) and liking (hedonic pleasure) are dissociable neural systems. Dopamine mediates w… (atomic-habits)

doi:10.1177/1745691616652873testified in 3 verdicts

NEEDS CONTEXT · The registered replication report on ego depletion found no significant effect, undermining the "willpower as … (atomic-habits)
NEEDS CONTEXT · The Registered Replication Report on ego depletion (23 labs, n=2,141) found NO significant effect of ego deple… (atomic-habits)
NEEDS CONTEXT · A pre-registered multi-lab replication of the ego depletion effect found no significant effect across 23 labor… (thinking-fast-and-slow)

doi:10.1037/0033-295X.100.3.363testified in 3 verdicts

CONTESTED · Individual differences in ultimate performance can largely be accounted for by differential amounts of past an… (grit)
CONTESTED · The 'best' violinists at the Music Academy of West Berlin averaged 10,000 hours of deliberate practice by age … (outliers)
CONTESTED · The 1993 study found a strong correlation between accumulated deliberate practice and group membership in thei… (outliers)

doi:10.1037/0033-295X.106.3.529testified in 3 verdicts

NEEDS CONTEXT · Most of a person's everyday life is determined not by their conscious intentions and deliberate choices but by… (influence)
NEEDS CONTEXT · Most of a person's everyday life is determined not by their conscious intentions and deliberate choices but by… (influence)
CONTESTED · Automatic processes are pervasive in everyday life, but they exist on a continuum rather than as all-or-nothin… (influence)

doi:10.1016/j.tics.2018.02.001testified in 3 verdicts

NEEDS CONTEXT · The features attributed to automatic processing (fast, effortless, unconscious) do not reliably co-occur. The … (influence)
CONTESTED · The features attributed to automatic processing -- fast, effortless, unconscious -- do not reliably co-occur. … (influence)
NEEDS CONTEXT · The features attributed to System 1 (fast, automatic, unconscious) do not reliably co-occur, nor do those attr… (thinking-fast-and-slow)

doi:10.1016/0022-1031(71)90068-7testified in 3 verdicts

NEEDS CONTEXT · Subjects who received a favor from Joe bought significantly more raffle tickets than those who did not, and th… (influence)
HOLDS · Uninvited favors created obligation to comply with later requests, regardless of whether the recipient liked t… (influence)
HOLDS · Subjects who received a Coke purchased significantly more raffle tickets than those who received nothing, with… (influence)

doi:10.1037/amp0000401testified in 3 verdicts

NEEDS CONTEXT · Guards received explicit instructions regarding prisoner treatment. Zimbardo was present as 'superintendent' a… (influence)
NEEDS CONTEXT · Guards were given precise instructions. An assistant was recorded saying: 'We really want to get you active...… (influence)
HOLDS · Guards were coached by experimenters, data was cherry-picked, and conclusions were not supported by the eviden… (poor-charlies-almanack)

doi:10.1037/0033-2909.119.1.111testified in 3 verdicts

HOLDS · Meta-analysis of 133 studies from 17 countries found conformity rates declined over time in the US but remaine… (influence)
HOLDS · Asch conformity rates have declined over time and vary hugely by culture. The effect exists but is much smalle… (poor-charlies-almanack)
HOLDS · Average conformity rates have declined significantly since Asch's original studies and vary substantially acro… (poor-charlies-almanack)

doi:10.4324/9780429499692testified in 3 verdicts

NEEDS CONTEXT · Southern and Western states with herding-origin populations show higher rates of argument-related homicide (bu… (outliers)
NEEDS CONTEXT · In the 'asshole' experiment, insulted Southern participants showed a 79% cortisol increase (vs 33% for control… (outliers)
NEEDS CONTEXT · The herding hypothesis posits that cultures in which wealth is portable (livestock) develop stronger honor nor… (outliers)

doi:10.1126/science.aac4716testified in 3 verdicts

HOLDS · Replicated effects were half the magnitude of original effects. 97% of original studies had significant result… (poor-charlies-almanack)
HOLDS · Attempting to replicate 100 psychology studies, only 36% produced statistically significant results in the rep… (thinking-fast-and-slow)
NEEDS CONTEXT · Attempting to replicate 100 psychology studies, only 36% produced statistically significant results. Social pr… (thinking-fast-and-slow)

doi:10.1037/a0010932testified in 3 verdicts

HOLDS · Partial replication found similar obedience rates at 150V, but full replications are ethically impossible. Per… (poor-charlies-almanack)
NEEDS CONTEXT · Obedience rates at 150V were comparable to Milgram's original rates, suggesting the basic phenomenon persists. (poor-charlies-almanack)
NEEDS CONTEXT · In a partial replication stopping at 150V, 70% continued to the cutoff point. (poor-charlies-almanack)

doi:10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9testified in 3 verdicts

HOLDS · Systematic experimental demonstration of availability heuristic. Munger's list includes this one but omits the… (poor-charlies-almanack)
HOLDS · A person is said to employ the availability heuristic whenever he estimates frequency or probability by the ea… (poor-charlies-almanack)
HOLDS · Participants judged letters like K and R to appear more often in first position than third position of English… (thinking-fast-and-slow)

doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04398.xtestified in 3 verdicts

HOLDS · The relation between beta and average return for 1941-1990 is weak. (poor-charlies-almanack)
HOLDS · High book-to-market (value) stocks outperformed low book-to-market (growth) stocks by 7.6% per year over 1963-… (poor-charlies-almanack)
HOLDS · Survivorship bias in mutual fund databases inflates reported average returns by approximately 0.9% per year be… (the-black-swan)

doi:10.1037/a0016755testified in 3 verdicts

NEEDS CONTEXT · Expert judgment is only valid in 'high-validity environments' with regular feedback. Investing is a LOW-validi… (poor-charlies-almanack)
HOLDS · Two necessary conditions for valid intuitive expertise: the environment must have stable, learnable regulariti… (thinking-fast-and-slow)
HOLDS · Political forecasting fails the two conditions for valid intuition: the environment is low-validity (unstable,… (thinking-fast-and-slow)

doi:10.1509/jmkr.42.3.293.35228testified in 3 verdicts

HOLDS · Network effects and word-of-mouth growth dynamics were modeled academically decades before Ries' simplified ta… (the-lean-startup)
CONTESTED · Network-driven growth models show that sustained k > 1.0 is extremely rare and typically temporary. Most 'vira… (the-lean-startup)
NEEDS CONTEXT · Customer lifetime value models and their relationship to acquisition costs were formalized in marketing scienc… (the-lean-startup)

The full stand: 352 more papers

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doi:10.2307/2094294 · 2
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doi:10.1016/j.jretai.2022.06.001 · 2
doi:10.1037/a0029901 · 2
doi:10.1016/j.jcps.2011.08.002 · 2
doi:10.1161/01.CIR.40.5S4.IV-74 · 2
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