The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable · chapter 3 · id the-black-swan-c3-05-after-major-events-like-911-or
“After major events like 9/11 or the 2008 financial crisis, experts routinely constructed post-hoc narratives claiming the events were 'predictable,' despite having failed to predict them beforehand.”
VERIFIEDconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending
Receipts
Tetlock (2005), 'Expert Political Judgment', Chapter 1source alive
Experts were only marginally superior to random chance in political predictions. Those who performed worst were the most confident and most sought after by media for explanations.
Ritholtz: After the Fact Explanations Always Have Perfect Hindsightsource alive
Many people today claim to have predicted the 2008 financial crisis, despite all evidence to the contrary. The number of people claiming prescience far exceeds the number who actually warned of systemic risk beforehand.
FasterCapital: The Narrative Fallacypaywalled · manual check queued
Unexpected events, after they occur, seem obvious and predictable despite there having been little or no objective basis for predicting them.
This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us. Corrections are loud here.