The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable · chapter 4 · id the-black-swan-c4-02-drowned-worshippers-cicero-rec
“Drowned worshippers: Cicero recounts how Diagoras was shown painted tablets depicting worshippers who prayed and survived a shipwreck. He asked 'Where are the portraits of those who prayed and then drowned?'”
VERIFIEDconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending
Receipts
Cicero, De Natura Deorum, Book III, 89 (45 BC)source alive
Cicero attributes this anecdote to Diagoras of Melos: shown votive pictures of those saved from shipwreck, he asked where the pictures of those who drowned despite praying were.
This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us. Corrections are loud here.