The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable · chapter 5 · id the-black-swan-c5-08-the-precautionary-principle-sh
“The precautionary principle should apply asymmetrically: when potential consequences are catastrophic and irreversible (nuclear war, ecosystem collapse, pandemics), the burden of proof should fall on those who claim safety, not on those who warn of danger.”
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Wikipedia: Black Swan Theorysource alive
Taleb argues for the precautionary principle in domains where errors are irreversible and consequences are catastrophic, connecting it to his broader framework of asymmetric payoffs and convexity.
IEP: Popper's Philosophy of Sciencesource alive
Popper's asymmetry between verification and falsification extends to policy: we cannot prove something is safe, only that it has not yet been shown to be dangerous. This epistemological humility should inform precautionary approaches.
Wikipedia: The Open Society and Its Enemiessource alive
Popper advocated for 'piecemeal social engineering' -- making small, reversible changes rather than radical, irreversible ones -- as a policy analog to his philosophy of science.
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