Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · chapter 1 · id thinking-in-bets-c1-04-pete-carrolls-super-bowl-xlix-
“Pete Carroll's Super Bowl XLIX pass call had only a ~2% interception rate historically. From the 1-yard line on second down over 10 NFL seasons, quarterbacks threw 270 passes producing 129 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions (1.85%).”
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ESPN Stats & Info, 'Inside Seattle's decision to pass from the 1'source alive
In the past 10 seasons, quarterbacks threw 270 passes on second down from the opponent's 1-yard line, combining for 129 touchdowns and just five interceptions.
Sports Illustrated, 'There Was a 3.1% Chance of an Interception'source alive
The interception rate for passes from the one-yard line was approximately 3.1% when accounting for all down situations, making Wilson's interception a statistical outlier.
FiveThirtyEight (Benjamin Morris), statistical analysis of Super Bowl XLIXsource alive
Carroll's decision cost Seattle at most 0.3 percentage points in win probability. Belichick's decision not to call timeout cost New England 2.1 percentage points.
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