Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · chapter 1 · id thinking-in-bets-c1-05-dukes-concept-of-resulting-is-
“Duke's concept of 'resulting' is a rebranding of 'outcome bias' first identified by Baron and Hershey in 1988, a phenomenon that has been replicated in a 2023 pre-registered study with N=692.”
TRUE, BUTconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending
Receipts
Baron & Hershey (1988), 'Outcome bias in decision evaluation,' Journal of Personality and Social PsychologyDOI registry: valid
Subjects rated the quality of a decision as higher when the outcome was favorable, even when outcome information was irrelevant to decision quality.
International Review of Social Psychology (2023), 'Outcomes Affect Evaluations of Decision Quality: Replication and Extensions of Baron and Hershey (1988)'source alive
A pre-registered replication with N=692 on Amazon Mechanical Turk successfully replicated outcome bias, showing a decision resulting in a positive outcome was evaluated as better even when participants were explicitly told to ignore the outcome.
Gauriot & Page (2019), 'Understanding outcome bias,' Games and Economic BehaviorDOI registry: valid
Football coaches and journalists rated players' whole-match performance substantially better when a lucky goal occurred versus an unlucky miss.
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