Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · chapter 1 · id thinking-in-bets-c1-06-poker-equity-calculations-expe
“Poker equity calculations (expected value of a hand given hidden information) demonstrate how decisions under uncertainty require probabilistic thinking rather than deterministic analysis.”
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Billings et al., 'A Tool for the Direct Assessment of Poker Decisions,' University of Alberta Computer Poker Research Groupsource alive
The stochasticity of poker has a highly detrimental effect on performance assessment. The signal-to-noise ratio is low -- a player can play extremely well and still lose over an extended period, just by bad luck.
Brown & Sandholm (2019), 'Superhuman AI for multiplayer poker,' ScienceDOI registry: valid
Unlike chess, poker involves hidden information, stochastic outcomes, and the need to model opponents' beliefs -- properties shared with many real-world strategic interactions.
University of Toronto, Jeffrey Rosenthal research on luck vs skill in pokersource alive
Rosenthal and his team developed a definition of 'equity in the middle of a hand' -- the ability to determine how much players could expect to win or lose at any given point, enabling quantitative measurement of how much profit was due to luck versus skill.
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