Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · chapter 2 · id thinking-in-bets-c2-01-expressing-uncertainty-as-prob
“Expressing uncertainty as probabilities ("thinking in bets") leads to better calibration and less bias in everyday decisions.”
TRUE, BUTconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending
Receipts
Mellers et al. (2019), 'Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions,' Perspectives on Psychological ScienceDOI registry: valid
Superforecasters who express uncertainty as precise probabilities and update incrementally outperform both experts and prediction markets on short-range geopolitical forecasts.
Frontiers in Psychology (2020), 'Effects of Working Memory on Bayesian Reasoning'DOI registry: valid
Performance on Bayesian reasoning is rather poor -- humans struggle with probabilistic reasoning due to working memory constraints and base-rate neglect.
PMC Review (2025), 'The Myth of the Bayesian Brain'source alive
Human perception exhibits robust cognitive biases and heuristics that appear distinctly non-Bayesian, including base-rate neglect, availability bias, and anchoring effects.
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