Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · chapter 2 · id thinking-in-bets-c2-06-philip-tetlocks-research-showe
“Philip Tetlock's research showed that superforecasters outperformed professional intelligence analysts with access to classified information by 30%, and that the top 2% of forecasters consistently beat their peers.”
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Receipts
Good Judgment Project, 'Philip Tetlock's 10 Commandments of Superforecasting'source alive
Superforecasters performed 30% better than professional analysts who had access to classified information.
The Decision Lab, 'Philip Tetlock' profilesource alive
About 2% of superforecasters consistently outperform their peers. Superforecasters' initial forecasts were at least 50% more accurate than those of regular forecasters.
Askeladden Capital, book review and analysis of Superforecastingsource alive
IARPA tournament data showed superforecasters beating intelligence community analysts with classified data access. Accuracy fell off beyond 18 months, approaching dart-throwing-chimpanzee levels at 3-5 years out.
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