Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · chapter 3 · id thinking-in-bets-c3-01-we-should-update-beliefs-incre
“We should update beliefs incrementally based on new evidence (Bayesian updating) rather than flip-flopping between certainty and doubt.”
TRUE, BUTconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending
Receipts
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 'Bayes' Theorem'source alive
Bayesian epistemology prescribes that rational agents update their credences by conditionalization on new evidence, proportional to how expected the evidence was under each hypothesis.
Wagenmakers, Bayesian Spectacles (University of Amsterdam)source alive
The main thrust of the book is firmly Bayesian, but the word 'Bayesian' never appears. Duke's interpretation of p-values and confidence intervals contains errors. She misses foundational citations (Lindley, Ramsey, de Finetti).
Frontiers in Psychology (2020), working memory and Bayesian reasoningDOI registry: valid
Bayesian reasoning is common and critical in everyday life, but performance on explicit Bayesian reasoning tasks is rather poor due to working memory constraints.
This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us. Corrections are loud here.