Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · chapter 3 · id thinking-in-bets-c3-08-the-prospective-hindsight-tech
“The prospective hindsight technique -- imagining an event has already occurred rather than might occur -- increases the ability to identify reasons for future outcomes by 30% (Mitchell, Russo & Pennington, 1989).”
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Mitchell, Russo & Pennington (1989), 'Back to the future,' Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2(1), 25-38paywalled · manual check queued
Imagining that an event has already occurred, as opposed to imagining it might occur, increases the ability to correctly identify reasons for future outcomes by 30%.
Gary Klein official website, premortem pagesource alive
The premortem is based on prospective hindsight. The original Mitchell et al. study found a 30% increase in correctly identifying reasons for outcomes when using this temporal shift.
Veinott, Klein & Wiggins (2010), 'Evaluating the Effectiveness of the PreMortem Technique on Plan Confidence'FLAGGED: dead link (503)
The premortem technique was tested with 178 college students on an H1N1 epidemic scenario, showing effectiveness in surfacing potential failure modes.
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