Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · chapter 5 · id thinking-in-bets-c5-03-pre-mortems-imagining-failure-
“Pre-mortems (imagining failure before it happens) are more effective at identifying risks than post-mortems (analyzing failure after it happens).”
VERIFIEDconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending
Receipts
Mitchell, Russo & Pennington (1989), 'Back to the Future: Temporal Perspective in the Explanation of Events,' Management ScienceFLAGGED: DOI not in registry
Prospective hindsight -- imagining that an event has already occurred -- increases the ability to correctly identify reasons for future outcomes by 30%.
Klein (2007), 'Performing a Project Premortem,' Harvard Business Reviewsource alive
A premortem is the hypothetical opposite of a postmortem. Rather than asking what went wrong after the fact, team members imagine that a project has failed and work backward to determine what could lead to the failure.
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