Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · chapter 5 · id thinking-in-bets-c5-07-diagnostic-error-in-medicine-a
“Diagnostic error in medicine affects approximately 5% of cases (12 million US adults annually), and overconfidence bias is a significant contributing factor. Dissent and second opinions could reduce these errors.”
VERIFIEDconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending
Receipts
AHRQ Patient Safety Network, 'Diagnostic Errors' primersource alive
About 5% of diagnostic cases experience an error, extrapolating to approximately 12 million adults experiencing a diagnostic error each year, with about half potentially harmful.
American Journal of Medicine, 'Overconfidence as a Cause of Diagnostic Error in Medicine'paywalled · manual check queued
Physicians tend to underappreciate the likelihood that their diagnoses are wrong. Overconfidence is related to both intrinsic and systemically reinforced factors including anchoring bias and availability bias.
Science, 'Toward the eradication of medical diagnostic errors'paywalled · manual check queued
Nearly 800,000 Americans die or are permanently disabled by diagnostic errors each year.
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