Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · chapter 5 · id thinking-in-bets-c5-09-scenario-planning-and-structur
“Scenario planning and structured disagreement techniques can improve forecasting accuracy by forcing consideration of multiple possible futures rather than anchoring on a single expected outcome.”
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Good Judgment Project, Tetlock's frameworksource alive
Superforecasters consistently consider multiple scenarios and update probabilities incrementally. Their accuracy derives partly from considering many possible outcomes rather than anchoring on one.
Kahneman & Klein (2009), American Psychologistpaywalled · manual check queued
Expert intuition is reliable only in environments with regular patterns and sufficient practice with feedback. Structured disagreement helps surface conditions where intuition may fail.
Nemeth (2001), Journal of Applied Social Psychologypaywalled · manual check queued
Dissent stimulates broader information search and consideration of alternatives, improving the quality of group decisions and predictions.
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