Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future · chapter 1 · id zero-to-one-c1-04-technology-has-stagnated-since
“Technology has stagnated since the 1970s -- we were promised flying cars but got 140 characters instead. Total factor productivity growth collapsed from 1.89% (1920-1970) to under 1% after 1970.”
TRUE, BUTconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending
Receipts
Robert Gordon -- The Rise and Fall of American Growth (2016, Princeton)source alive
TFP growth averaged 1.89% annually 1920-1970, then fell below 1% after 1970. The century of revolution in living standards was a one-time-only event.
Tyler Cowen -- The Great Stagnation (2011)source alive
America has been eating the low-hanging fruit of modern history and is now running out. Median household income stagnated since the 1970s.
Works in Progress -- There Was No Great Stagnationsource alive
Biotech, renewable energy, and information technology produced genuine breakthroughs post-1970. The stagnation narrative ignores quality improvements unmeasured by GDP.
This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us. Corrections are loud here.