Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future · chapter 1 · id zero-to-one-c1-09-the-growth-of-finance-reflects
“The growth of finance reflects a shift toward indefinite thinking: instead of building specific things, people optimize portfolios and financial instruments.”
TRUE, BUTconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending
Receipts
Greenwood & Scharfstein (2013) -- JEPsource alive
Finance grew from 4.9% to 7.9% of GDP between 1980 and 2006, driven by asset management and credit intermediation expansion.
Philippon (2015) -- Has the U.S. Finance Industry Become Less Efficient?, NYU Sternsource alive
The unit cost of financial intermediation has remained roughly constant at 1.5-2% for over a century despite massive technological improvements. Finance has grown without becoming more efficient.
This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us. Corrections are loud here.