TRUE, BUTMoved Ruler
Both are survey-based estimates
Both numbers are Menlo Ventures estimates scaled up from a survey of 5,067 U.S. adults.
“Consumer AI spending tripled to $40 billion while the global user base only grew from 1.8 billion to 2 billion, per Menlo Ventures' 2026 State of Consumer AI report.”
11 receipts5 support1 refute5 context
Menlo's methodology says its market sizes are estimates anchored on survey data, from 5,067 U.S. adults surveyed with Morning Consult, with the global figure adjusted downwards for internet access. The only measured adoption change is U.S. adult use rising from 61% to 64%.
The twist
The report says 55% of AI users now pay for at least one AI product. Bank of America Institute, working from payments data, says only 3% of households pay for AI. The units differ, users against households, but the two methods give very different pictures of who is paying.
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The trick has a name
We call it Moved Ruler: two methods, two answers, one of them quoted. You'll see it again. Learn to spot it →
