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The landscape · Energy and data-centre power

Energy and data-centre power: what AI is really doing

Checked 24 Sept 2026 · newest receipt 22 Sept 2026 · 6 shifts · 11 companies · every fact sourced

Brief me in 2 minutes

AI in Energy and data-centre power.

AI data centers are now big enough that grids treat them like their own weather system: Texas's connection queue for new large loads sits at 474 GW, about 90% of it data centers, and states are rewriting who pays to serve them. The actual power behind the AI boom is unglamorous, mostly new gas turbines and life extensions on existing plants, while software from startups like Emerald AI and Karman squeezes 25% or more out of capacity that is already built. The nuclear, fusion and geothermal deals AI labs love to announce remain mostly paper for now: real contracts, but plants dated 2027 through 2034, not power flowing yet.

The game: we show you 6 things happening. You call each one real now, early or mostly hype. Then the receipts.

Shift 1 of 6

Grid rules get rewritten mid-buildout, state by state

Shift 2 of 6

Data centers learn to flex instead of demanding constant peak power

Shift 3 of 6

AI labs go straight to the reactor instead of buying clean power credits

Shift 4 of 6

Gas turbines are the fast lane to power AI, until regulators start asking who pays

Shift 5 of 6

Geothermal gets its first gigawatt-scale AI contract

Shift 6 of 6

AI weather models quietly become the forecast billions of people already see

The scary part

What happens to jobs in Energy and data-centre power

What AI is already taking:

  • Deciding, minute to minute, how much power an AI data center cluster is allowed to draw during a grid stress event NVIDIA ↗
  • Drafting the base weather forecast that used to come from a meteorologist running a physics simulation Google ↗
  • Real-time rack-level power monitoring and control inside a data center that used to run on fixed engineering margins Karman ↗

What stays human:

Deciding whether a reactor, a rate case or a gas turbine is actually safe and fair to ratepayers still runs through human regulators, courts and licensing boards, as North Carolina's regulators just proved by rejecting a gas turbine on cost grounds. No AI model signs a 20-year power purchase agreement or accepts liability for a grid failure.

Get better · 15 minutes

The ability to read and negotiate energy contracts and interconnection filings, the paperwork that actually decides who gets power and when, stays scarce and human no matter how good the forecasting or dispatch software gets.

Try this this week:

Pull up PJM's or ERCOT's public interconnection queue dashboard and find a data center project near you, then ask an AI assistant like Gemini or ChatGPT to explain in plain English what stage it is at and what happens next. That is the same queue the deals in this briefing are fighting over.

Your move

If you're building

The open lane is software that makes existing power capacity flexible or visible, in the model of Emerald AI and Karman, cheaper to build than a reactor and it ships in months, not years. Reactor and fusion hardware itself is already crowded: Kairos, X-energy, Aalo Atomics, Commonwealth Fusion and Helion are all chasing the same handful of hyperscaler customers.

If you're investing

The signal to watch is whether a deal has an actual in-service date attached; most nuclear and fusion headlines are dated 2027 to 2034, not this year. The red flag to probe in a pitch is a gigawatts-under-exclusivity number with no interconnection filing behind it: Elementl has only put 600MW of its claimed 1.5GW plant into PJM's actual queue so far.

If you work in it

If you work at a utility or a large power user, test flexible load curtailment software this quarter the way Salt River Project and Portland General Electric already have with Emerald AI. A demonstrated 25% cut over three hours is a cheaper first move than requesting a new gas interconnection.

If you're upskilling

The valuable skill is reading a power purchase agreement and an interconnection queue filing, not just a model card. Utilities and AI labs are hiring people who can tell a signed PPA with a near-term delivery date from one that is really a press release for the 2030s. Start by pulling one recent PPA or interconnection filing from a public company like Constellation, Vistra or Fervo.

Done. That was the whole industry.

What's actually changing

  1. 1

    Grid rules get rewritten mid-buildout, state by state

    How it works. Data center campuses now request hundreds of megawatts in a single interconnection application, more than most grids were built to add at once. Texas's queue for new large loads reached 474 GW, roughly 90% of it data centers, so the state paused new grid hookups to audit whether the number is even real. California went the other way and passed seven laws in September making data centers pay their own grid upgrade and wildfire costs instead of spreading them to other ratepayers.

    Why it matters. Whoever writes the interconnection queue rules decides which AI company gets power first and which household absorbs the bill for new transmission, so a permitting vote in Austin or Sacramento now moves faster than any GPU order.

    What's overstatedExecutives call permitting delay bureaucratic drag on the AI boom. Texas's own numbers say otherwise: 90% of its 474 GW interconnection queue is data centers, which is why the state itself hit pause to check the figure.

    ERCOTCalifornia Public Utilities CommissionPJM Interconnection

    3 receipts
    • Texas's pending data center interconnection requests total 474 GW, about 90% of the state's entire queue, prompting a state audit. the state audits the Electric Reliability Council of Texas' 474 GW interconnection queue, approximately 90% of which is data centers Utility Dive, 21 Sept 2026 ↗
    • California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed seven bills making data centers pay their own grid upgrade and wildfire costs. The new laws require data centers “pay their fair share of grid update costs,” disclose water use to local governments and give up eligibility for blanket environmental exemptions Utility Dive, 22 Sept 2026 ↗
    • A study commissioned by Pennsylvania's utility regulator warns PJM's grid reliability could start failing by 2030 if data center load growth continues. these reliability issues are largely due to surging data center additions Utility Dive, 15 Sept 2026 ↗
  2. 2

    Data centers learn to flex instead of demanding constant peak power

    How it works. Instead of building a data center to draw its maximum power nonstop, a control layer throttles GPU clusters down for minutes or hours whenever the local grid is stressed, then ramps back up. Emerald AI's Conductor software proved it could cut a 256-GPU cluster's power draw by 25% over three hours during an Arizona grid event without dropping compute quality, and NVIDIA, Google, Anthropic and utilities including AES, Constellation and Vistra now plan to build this flexibility into new AI factories from day one.

    Why it matters. This is the fastest way to add AI compute without waiting a decade for new transmission, and one widely cited estimate says flexing load for less than 200 hours a year could unlock 100 gigawatts of grid capacity that already exists, capacity worth more than $2 trillion in avoided data center investment.

    What's overstatedEmerald AI's own release calls its software deployed commercially at multi-megawatt, full data center scale. That is true at five demonstration sites with friendly utility partners, not yet the default setting for the wider fleet of data centers still built to draw fixed, always-on power.

    Emerald AINVIDIAGoogleOracleKarman

    3 receipts
    • Emerald AI's software cut a 256-GPU cluster's power draw by 25% for three hours during an Arizona grid stress event while preserving compute quality. reduce the power consumption of AI workloads running on a cluster of 256 NVIDIA GPUs by 25% over three hours during a grid stress event NVIDIA, 1 July 2025 ↗
    • A Duke University study estimates flexing AI data center load for under 200 hours a year could unlock 100 gigawatts of new grid capacity. if new AI data centers could flex their electricity consumption by just 25% for two hours at a time, less than 200 hours a year, they could unlock 100 gigawatts of new capacity NVIDIA, 1 July 2025 ↗
    • Emerald AI raised $150 million in a Series A at a $1.05 billion valuation, saying its tech is deployed commercially at multi-megawatt scale. With five global demonstrations complete, Emerald AI's technology is now deployed commercially, dynamically flexing power consumption at multi-megawatt, full data center scale. Emerald AI, 25 Aug 2026 ↗
  3. 3

    AI labs go straight to the reactor instead of buying clean power credits

    How it works. Google, Microsoft and Amazon are now signing direct deals for specific reactors and specific megawatts instead of buying generic clean energy certificates. Google alone has deals covering a 50MW Kairos Power demonstration reactor in Tennessee, capacity uprates at Georgia Power's existing Vogtle and Hatch nuclear plants, a 200MW contract with fusion developer Commonwealth Fusion Systems, and three new reactor sites with developer Elementl Power, one a 1.5 gigawatt plant in Ohio.

    Why it matters. These are the deals that determine whether new nuclear capacity actually gets built this decade, and hyperscalers are now underwriting reactor construction risk directly instead of leaving it to utilities and their ratepayers.

    What's overstatedThe press releases read like the reactors are already humming. Kairos broke ground on its demonstration unit in April and is still lining up construction partners, Commonwealth Fusion's Hyundai-backed plant is aiming for the early 2030s, and Elementl's Ohio project has a target construction start of 2030 with completion in 2034.

    GoogleKairos PowerCommonwealth Fusion SystemsElementl PowerCrusoeAalo Atomics

    3 receipts
    • Samsung C&T agreed to invest up to $100 million in Kairos Power's Hermes 2 demonstration reactor in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, which will supply Google. Samsung C&T has agreed to provide up to $100 million through a combination of direct investment and in-kind engineering services, subject to regulatory approvals, to enable the successful delivery of the Hermes 2 Demonstration Plant in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Kairos Power, 21 Sept 2026 ↗
    • Google's nuclear portfolio also includes a 200MW fusion PPA with Commonwealth Fusion Systems and a strategic deal with Elementl Power for three new reactor projects. Google has also signed a 200MW PPA with Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS), a nuclear fusion firm, a 50MW PPA with small modular reactor firm Kairos Power, and a strategic agreement with Elementl Power to develop three nuclear energy Data Center Dynamics, 22 Sept 2026 ↗
    • Elementl Power's first Ohio reactor site targets a 2030 construction start and 2034 completion, part of a planned 1.5GW plant. Elementl is forecasting reaching final investment decision (FID) and commencing construction in 2030 with an anticipated completion date of 2034. New Project Media, 21 Aug 2026 ↗
  4. 4

    Gas turbines are the fast lane to power AI, until regulators start asking who pays

    How it works. While nuclear and geothermal projects take years to permit, gas plants can be built or repurposed much faster, so developers are locking down gas capacity directly next to data center sites. New Era signed a 20-year power deal to run its 250MW Texas data center off Vistra's existing gas plant next door, and Constellation is paying $715 million for a 609MW Rhode Island gas plant to expand its footprint. But not every gas request survives contact with a regulator: North Carolina just rejected Duke Energy's proposed 255MW gas turbine as too costly with uncertain need.

    Why it matters. Gas is currently the power source most able to match AI's construction timeline, but every megawatt locked into a 20-year contract is a megawatt regulators cannot easily reroute if cheaper or cleaner capacity shows up later, and ratepayers often end up guaranteeing the plant's return.

    What's overstatedGas gets sold as the pragmatic bridge fuel while nuclear and geothermal mature. North Carolina's regulator just said the actual bridge, a 255MW turbine, was not worth its staggering cost given uncertain demand, an early sign state regulators will not rubber stamp every gas request AI developers bring them.

    VistraConstellation EnergyDuke EnergyNew EraShell

    3 receipts
    • New Era signed a 20-year gas power deal to run its 250MW Ector County, Texas data center directly off an adjacent Vistra gas plant. New Era signs 20-year gas PPA with Vistra subsidiary to power 250MW data center in Ector County, Texas Data Center Dynamics, 22 Sept 2026 ↗
    • Constellation Energy is paying $715 million to acquire a 609MW Rhode Island gas plant from Shell. Constellation Energy will acquire the 609-MW RISEC from Shell Energy North America for $715 million, the companies announced Sept. 10, 2026. Utility Dive, 14 Sept 2026 ↗
    • North Carolina regulators denied Duke Energy's proposed 255MW gas turbine, citing staggering cost and uncertain need. denied Duke Energy's proposal to construct and operate a 255-MW natural gas-fueled simple cycle combustion turbine at its Smith Energy Complex in Richmond County, North Carolina, citing uncertainty around load growth and the cost of the proposal. Utility Dive, 22 Sept 2026 ↗
  5. 5

    Geothermal gets its first gigawatt-scale AI contract

    How it works. Enhanced geothermal drilling, borrowed from oil and gas fracking techniques, can deliver round-the-clock carbon-free power without waiting on a reactor's decade-long permitting process. Fervo Energy signed a 396MW power deal with Google to feed a planned Utah data center, with an option to expand to nearly 1 GW by 2030, building on a smaller 115MW deal the two signed in 2024.

    Why it matters. This is the first geothermal deal sized like the nuclear and gas deals AI labs sign, proof that a power source running around the clock without fuel shipments or reactor safety review can compete for the same contracts.

    What's overstatedGeothermal gets pitched as an already-proven alternative to nuclear waiting games. Fervo's own contract is not due online until 2028, and the option to nearly triple it to 1 GW is not due until 2030, so this remains a very well-funded construction project, not power on the grid yet.

    Fervo EnergyGoogle

    2 receipts
    • Fervo Energy signed a 396MW PPA with Google for a Utah geothermal project expected online in 2028. announced a 396-megawatt (MW) power purchase agreement (PPA) with Google to enable the continued development of the Cape Station enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) GeoCluster, expected to come online in 2028 Fervo Energy, 1 Sept 2026 ↗
    • Google has an option to expand the deal to nearly 1 GW by 2030, building on a 115MW PPA the two signed in 2024. Fervo signed a 115 MW PPA with Google and NV Energy in June 2024 that helped pioneer the Clean Transition Tariff Fervo Energy, 1 Sept 2026 ↗
  6. 6

    AI weather models quietly become the forecast billions of people already see

    How it works. Google DeepMind's WeatherNext models have replaced older, physics-only supercomputer simulations as the base layer behind Search, Maps and Gemini weather. The newest version, WeatherNext 3, ingests live satellite data every hour instead of every six, producing forecasts roughly five times sharper than its predecessor, and independent evaluator Brightband confirmed it is now the most accurate model on the market for 2-meter temperature on 26 of the last 30 days tested.

    Why it matters. Forecasts are the invisible infrastructure behind flight delays, farming decisions and disaster planning, and control of that layer is consolidating into whichever lab's model wins the accuracy leaderboard this month, not staying with the national weather agencies that used to own it.

    What's overstatedGoogle's launch post reads like consumer forecasting has replaced the need for official weather services. The same page tells users to check their local meteorological agency or national weather service for actual severe weather warnings, because a sharper phone forecast is not a certified warning system.

    Google DeepMindBrightbandNOAA

    3 receipts
    • WeatherNext 3 ingests live satellite data hourly and produces forecasts roughly five times sharper than its predecessor. Overall, this provides a global weather picture roughly five times sharper than our previous model, WeatherNext 2, which produced forecasts on a 25-kilometer grid in 6-hour increments. Google, 3 Sept 2026 ↗
    • Independent evaluator Brightband found WeatherNext 3 had the lowest 2-meter temperature forecast error on 26 of the last 30 days. WeatherNext 3 had the lowest error for 26 of the last 30 days. Brightband, 2 Sept 2026 ↗
    • Google's own launch page tells users to rely on local meteorological agencies for official severe weather warnings, not the AI model. For official weather forecasts, severe weather warnings, and public safety advisories, please refer to your local meteorological agency or national weather service. Google, 3 Sept 2026 ↗

Who's doing it

11 companies to know, 7 with a round we can source. Newest first where dated.

Search these companies in the startup database ↗ · Explore all research tools

Kairos Powersmall modular nuclear reactors

Building a 50MW demonstration molten-salt reactor in Tennessee under a long-term deal to supply Google's data centers.

Latest · 21 Sept 2026Samsung C&T joined Kairos Power's construction team and agreed to invest in the Hermes 2 demonstration reactor. Kairos Power ↗

up to $100M Strategic investment (Samsung C&T), 21 Sept 2026 source ↗

Crusoe Energyvertically integrated AI infrastructure and power

Builds and powers its own AI data centers end to end, increasingly using stranded gas and now nuclear microreactors.

Latest · 17 Sept 2026Crusoe says it has over $140 billion in total contracted value across its vertically integrated AI infrastructure platform. Crusoe ↗

$3.9B Series F, 17 Sept 2026 source ↗

Karman (formerly Utilidata)AI power orchestration for data centers and grids

NVIDIA-backed software and hardware that senses and controls power draw at the rack level, so AI data centers can squeeze more compute out of the power they already have.

Latest · 15 Sept 2026Utilidata rebranded as Karman as AI data centers became the frontline of the power grid, expanding its board with executives from Verrus and VoltServer. Karman ↗

$40M extension ($100M total Series C) Series C, 28 May 2026 source ↗

Commonwealth Fusion Systemsnuclear fusion power

Building SPARC, a fusion demonstration machine, and ARC, its first planned commercial fusion power plant, aimed partly at AI-era power demand.

Latest · 10 Sept 2026Hyundai Motor Group became an investor in CFS's most recent $1 billion fundraise as CFS builds its first ARC power plant in Virginia. Commonwealth Fusion Systems ↗

$1B (total raised $4B) Growth equity, 30 July 2026 source ↗

BrightbandAI weather and climate forecasting

Builds AI weather forecasting and data tools, and independently benchmarks models like Google's WeatherNext against each other and against reality.

Latest · 2 Sept 2026Brightband's independent benchmark found Google's new WeatherNext 3 model has the lowest 2-meter temperature forecast error on 26 of the last 30 days. Brightband ↗

Fervo Energyenhanced geothermal power

Drills enhanced geothermal wells for round-the-clock carbon-free power, now selling gigawatt-scale capacity directly to AI data center developers.

Latest · 1 Sept 2026Fervo signed a 396MW PPA with Google for a Utah geothermal-powered data center project expected online in 2028. Fervo Energy ↗

Emerald AIgrid flexibility software

Software that throttles AI data center power draw during grid stress events, then ramps back up, so data centers connect to the grid faster.

Latest · 25 Aug 2026Emerald AI says its grid-flexibility approach could unlock over 100 gigawatts of capacity on the existing US grid. Emerald AI ↗

$150M Series A, 25 Aug 2026 source ↗

Elementl Powernuclear project development

Develops sites for new nuclear plants and lines up utility and hyperscaler customers before a reactor vendor is even chosen.

Latest · 21 Aug 2026Elementl submitted the first 600MW of a planned 1.5GW nuclear plant in Ohio into PJM's interconnection queue. New Project Media ↗

X-energysmall modular reactors and HALEU fuel

Builds Xe-100 small modular reactors and their fuel supply chain, with commercial projects underway for Amazon, Dow and Centrica.

Latest · 6 Aug 2026X-energy is advancing more than 11GW of new nuclear capacity in the US and UK, with Xe-100 projects underway for Dow, Amazon and Centrica. X-energy ↗

Aalo Atomicsmodular nuclear microreactors

Builds small modular nuclear reactors (XMRs) designed to sit next to and directly power AI data centers.

Latest · 30 July 2026Crusoe and Aalo Atomics are partnering to deploy the first nuclear-powered AI factory data center. Crusoe ↗

over $136M Cumulative, multiple investors, 30 July 2026 source ↗

Helion Energynuclear fusion power

Fusion power startup building its Orion plant, with a power deal with Microsoft targeting first commercial electricity later this decade.

Latest · 4 June 2026Helion's Polaris prototype became the first privately funded fusion machine to run on deuterium-tritium fuel, breaking its own plasma temperature record. Helion ↗

$465M Series G, 4 June 2026 source ↗

Your move

Our read, built on the receipts above.

If you're building

The open lane is software that makes existing power capacity flexible or visible, in the model of Emerald AI and Karman, cheaper to build than a reactor and it ships in months, not years. Reactor and fusion hardware itself is already crowded: Kairos, X-energy, Aalo Atomics, Commonwealth Fusion and Helion are all chasing the same handful of hyperscaler customers.

If you're investing

The signal to watch is whether a deal has an actual in-service date attached; most nuclear and fusion headlines are dated 2027 to 2034, not this year. The red flag to probe in a pitch is a gigawatts-under-exclusivity number with no interconnection filing behind it: Elementl has only put 600MW of its claimed 1.5GW plant into PJM's actual queue so far.

If you work in it

If you work at a utility or a large power user, test flexible load curtailment software this quarter the way Salt River Project and Portland General Electric already have with Emerald AI. A demonstrated 25% cut over three hours is a cheaper first move than requesting a new gas interconnection.

If you're upskilling

The valuable skill is reading a power purchase agreement and an interconnection queue filing, not just a model card. Utilities and AI labs are hiring people who can tell a signed PPA with a near-term delivery date from one that is really a press release for the 2030s. Start by pulling one recent PPA or interconnection filing from a public company like Constellation, Vistra or Fervo.

What's next

  • Jan 2028 Fervo Energy's Cape Station geothermal GeoCluster in Utah, backing Google's 396MW PPA, is expected to come online fervoenergy.com ↗
  • Jan 2029 Aalo Atomics and Crusoe plan to deploy Aalo Pods and 50 MWe reactors at Crusoe data centers crusoe.ai ↗
  • Jan 2030 Elementl Power targets final investment decision and construction start on its first Ohio nuclear plant site newprojectmedia.com ↗

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